IMO, not only will the 360 be able to be modded within a year after release, the capabilities of a modded one will be far more advanced than what we were capable of doing to an XBOX. Think about it, a more advance and powerful system will only mean a more advance and powerful mod chip. Just like software developers are now able to manufacture better games with better software engines, so will hackers. MS took note of some of the capabilities of a modded XBOX and have even included it in the 360....from software to hardware....of course, all that will cost us more $$$ though.
Also, the concept of a modded system was not meant for piracy, but for enhanced capabilities. It's the modders who pirates that hurts those of us who just simply want a more powerful system. The first effect of this can be felt in the increase in prices for games. I know some will say that it's all part of inflation, but i disagree.