I do not know much on how xbox 360 works, etc. but i have done much research on bans that has been happening. With a little combination and common sense i realize this.
Microsoft knows that there consoles are hacked, they also know there is nothing much they can do about it. So they can atleast rely on the xbox live subscription. On the other hand game developers demand actions, for there hard worked games beeing copied, so microsoft does its end of the bargain by banning consoles.
I belive that we have already triggered microsoft a long time ago that we have modded consoles, it is just up to them when they will ban us. The thing is that i beleive ATM that they wont ban everyone , but they will ban highly profiled xbox live users, the users they know that would start going on forums and screaming that they got banned, the useres they know that are badly hooked on live, and are willing to buy 3 more consoles just to be connected. They also know if they ban a user like me, i would possibly just post a reply here, that "i was banned...",nothing more.
So if you are a casual xbox member just playing a few games a day, i dont belive there is a big reason for you to update, because as you can see , bans are triggered, you are detected at random times, and then banned at random times. Other than that, all the firmware updates (whitch are great firmwares) , are always detectable, i highly doubt that this time it would change that fact.
Finally it would not hurt (or it could.....) to update your firmware, but i am the type "if something woks, dont change it" , i suppose though the est thing you could do is just make sure your backups are ixtreme compatible, and just do the best you can to make the backups 1:1 as much as possible.