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[Flagg3]

Don't get me wrong, I moved away from physical media years ago.  I have an original Xbox in every room in my house, and they all stream my entire movie and music collection from my 1.5 Terabyte linksys NSLU2 server.  Everyone who visits my house envies my setup, and they all wish that they had it, but let's have a bit of a reality check here:  I am in a very small minority.

The simple fact is that there will always, always be demand for physical media.  Even if all of the many hurdles of electronic delivery are overcome, such as bandwidth and space limitations, DRM limitations and a simple and convenient way for the lay person to purchase and transport digital media as easily as you or I can, there will still always be huge demand for physical media.

Most people prefer to have a box, something to display and collect.  Something to wrap as a present, and something to grab as an impulse purchase.  I have absolutely no doubt that electronic delivery will grow steadily over the years, and it should eventually take it's rightful place as the #1 source of video rentals at some point in time - but make no mistake about it, all the wishful thinking in the world won't change the fact that movies on disc will be by far the top form of distribution for many years to come.  Upconversion is nice, but just as there is demand for HD content on cable and satellite, there will also be more and more demand for HD content on disc.

[jesterrace777]

I couldn't agree with you more.  

[bob_barker]

Just like always, when Sony wins, the consumer loses.

It'll be a cold day in hell when I buy a Blu-Ray player.  Alternatively, it'll be the day I can rip Blu-Ray movies to my puter and decrypt them.

Profile 1.1 and higher players REQUIRE an internet connection.  I'll be damned if I'm going to buy a DVD only to have my player phone Sony each time and ask permission to play the disc I just paid 30 bucks for.

HD-DVD could have kept a foothold if they had subsidized disc costs as heavily as Sony did.  Consumers buy on price more than anything.  Having a format that is "cheaper" to manufacture doesn't mean anything when the discs cost more than the competitor's product.

Also, this big price cut means little when Blu-Ray is doing something similar.

Sony execs: go die in a fire, please.

[Havok]

QUOTE(bob_barker @ Jan 15 2008, 11:11 AM)

Profile 1.1 and higher players REQUIRE an internet connection.  I'll be damned if I'm going to buy a DVD only to have my player phone Sony each time and ask permission to play the disc I just paid 30 bucks for.

  Umm... are you just making up stuff?  How is a internet connect required for most users?

http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/

1.11  Will Blu-ray require an Internet connection?
 
No, you will not need an Internet connection for basic playback of Blu-ray movies. The Internet connection will only be needed for value-added features such as downloading new extras, watching recent movie trailers, web browsing, etc. It will also be required to authorize managed copies of Blu-ray movies that can be transferred over a home network.
 

[feflicker]

@cerealkillajme, PERFECT POST. I really don't understand how BRD is winning. It is defying the laws of capitalism when you think about it...

[Flagg3]

QUOTE(feflicker @ Jan 15 2008, 04:46 PM)

@cerealkillajme, PERFECT POST. I really don't understand how BRD is winning. It is defying the laws of capitalism when you think about it...

No it doesn't.  As I've said numerous times, Blu-Ray won for one reason and one reason only:  Installed user base.  Regardless of which player sold more standalone players, or which one was technically better, the simple fact is that over 9 million people currently have Blu-Ray disc players in their homes, compared to just under 1 million HD-DVD players.  

Those people may not have specifically 'chosen' Blu-Ray over HD-DVD, but they have a high definition disc player, and that is the format that they will use.  That's why Blu-Ray discs outsell HD-DVD discs, and why they will continue to outsell them.  Sony snuck Blu-Ray into the living room, and the choice was made for those people.  

Conspiracy theories aside, the studio's simply could not ignore the numbers.  9 million installed userbase, and over 20 million in 2008.  HD-DVD would be lucky to have 3 million in that time frame, which simply is nowhere near enough to effectively compete.  

If it weren't for the PS3 factor, Blu-Ray would be the one on life support now, instead of the other way around, no question.

[HolySmoke]

I dunno, I still think it's far from over.  There's no telling how well the PS3 will ultimately sell or how fast BR prices will drop.  Given that it's going to be years before we see mass market penetration, HD DVD could well do a roundabout if, say, Toshiba started marketing them as 'a high-quality DVD player with hi-def capabilities' for 100$.  If regular DVD players are still outselling both HD formats for 100$, despite a decline in overall sales, then anything's possible.

HDTVs and hi-def players are still too niche items to be called mass market and, frankly, I think most people still aren't even aware of them.

[HSDEMONZ]

Nothing like seeing a sinking ship put on a fresh face and try to make the best of it with a delayed Press Release.

I think it's time for them to switch gears, and see that they have other options..

\/

[feflicker]

We all get the whole "installed user base" argument.

The point is that the benefits of HD-DVD STILL outweigh the relatively small install-base (compared to DVD, VHS). 9 Million isn't that many people. We are still in the infancy of the next-gen DVD rollout. Most of these 9 million people are videophiles and PS3 owners!

HD-DVD is clearly a WIN/WIN for consumers. That is why they are going to fight until the end. If HD-DVD wasn't the best option for consumers, they would fold up shop right now. They aren't staying in the game just because of "spite".

If you want reasonable prices on players, discs, and future recordable discs, you'll back HD-DVD. It's that simple... If you don't want that, then just buy BRD because you already have a PS3 and let's pay all this extra overhead we are putting on the content providers for the next few years  

[bucko]

QUOTE(Flagg3 @ Jan 15 2008, 05:26 AM)

Ironic how all of those who argued with my statements that HD-DVD couldn't win the format war are suddenly silent, especially those that were arguing as recently as a month ago.

For the record, I did announce that this was inevitable back in 2006, and the reason then is the same reason now.  HD-DVD simply could not survive if the PS3 shipped with a Blu-Ray player.  In my opinion, Toshiba did everything right, and if given the choice, consumers most likely would have chosen HD-DVD over Blu-Ray.  But the simple math of it was that Blu-Ray would always have a much larger installed userbase in the critical first years, and those numbers made it impossible for there ever to be any other outcome.

http://forums.xbox-s...&...t&p=3303751

http://forums.xbox-s...&...t&p=3305479

lol some people are counting there chickens to soon, it's not over yet, when you can't buy players and movies from shops I'm afraid that's when it's over. However you can still walk into a store and buy a HD-DVD player and movies. For sure some people will buy a PS3 for Blu-Ray movies but I doubt the average joe even knows about it, hell nearly all my friends have an SDTV and I doubt they have ever used the Blu-Ray feature for movies.

I think with HD-DVD releasing really cheap players you will soon see some great deals with cheap HDTV's and HD-DVD players consumers will pick them up a treat. Would a cheap HDTV and Blu-Ray player be an eye catcher to people in TV shops, no because it will be expensive. I still think HD-DVD has the edge in price and openness. I just wish people would stop saying it's dead because it is not!

[elitegamer360]

QUOTE(Barnolde @ Jan 15 2008, 07:12 AM)

Inferior quality, no ownership, takes a long time to download, no physical medium.

Digital downloads are completely niche.

Embrace Blu-ray.  

lol I wasn't joking and here's a similar news about Apple's TV might be killing both formats, so MS can do with the 360... DOWN to HD-DVD and BD  

I under stand the buying point, but I can tell you the future of buying actual discs looks grim.

Edit: forgot to paste the link lol.

http://popsci.typepa...e-wins-the.html

[Flagg3]

QUOTE(feflicker @ Jan 15 2008, 06:52 PM)

If you want reasonable prices on players, discs, and future recordable discs, you'll back HD-DVD. It's that simple... If you don't want that, then just buy BRD because you already have a PS3 and let's pay all this extra overhead we are putting on the content providers for the next few years  

For the record, I own 5 original Xbox's, 4 Xbox 360s with an HD-DVD addon, and only 1 PS3 and 1 Wii.  My opinion has nothing to do with any real or perceived bias, it's simply based on reality.

QUOTE(bucko @ Jan 15 2008, 07:06 PM)

lol some people are counting there chickens to soon, it's not over yet, when you can't buy players and movies from shops I'm afraid that's when it's over. However you can still walk into a store and buy a HD-DVD player and movies. For sure some people will buy a PS3 for Blu-Ray movies but I doubt the average joe even knows about it, hell nearly all my friends have an SDTV and I doubt they have ever used the Blu-Ray feature for movies.

I think with HD-DVD releasing really cheap players you will soon see some great deals with cheap HDTV's and HD-DVD players consumers will pick them up a treat. Would a cheap HDTV and Blu-Ray player be an eye catcher to people in TV shops, no because it will be expensive. I still think HD-DVD has the edge in price and openness. I just wish people would stop saying it's dead because it is not!

It's basically over.  Yes, you can still buy players, but without content, that won't do much good.  There is simply no conceivable way for HD-DVD to recover.  Even if they somehow managed to liquidate 5 million HD-DVD players this year, the studios will not return.  It simply isn't in their best interest to keep the market fractured, and with Blu-ray here to stay, HD-DVD has become the unfortunate victim.  (For the record, I prefer HD-DVD.  It clearly would have won the format war if not for the PS3)

[FCTE]

Nothing more than a stall tactic.

HD DVD will make great cheap large optical storage disks to replace CD and DVD, but as far as movies go they are done. They need to stop dragging this out so we can have one format and other consumers will not be afraid to jump to HD discs.

Besides the real war is on after Blu-ray wins, Blu-ray vs. DVD.

Digital downloads will be the future, but not until broadband is everywhere and the internet is capable of handling HD traffic, that's to say not very soon.

Also, video on demand and HD downloads on the Xbox are loss quality vs. the quality of HD discs.

QUOTE(bucko @ Jan 15 2008, 06:06 PM)

Would a cheap HDTV and Blu-Ray player be an eye catcher to people in TV shops, no because it will be expensive.

Well in the US our specialty home theater shops don't even carry HD DVD, they all push Blu-ray.

Tech heads are the ones driving the technology at this point, not the average consumer. Cheaper is sometimes viewed as inferior with a huge price gap between competitors. HD DVD is just not as well known as Blu-ray.  

The real problem is that HD DVD didn't have any advertising at all. I see commercials for Blu-ray all the time, I haven't seen anything for HD DVD. Toshiba blew it.

[joemm210]

Since warner is releasing hd dvd movies up until may and they said they didnt take any money to go blu-ray only and it was only based on movie sales, maybe just maybe if Toshiba gets enough players out of the door by May and the hd dvd movies released in may out sell bluray they would come back.....

Its wishful thinking but you never know.

[NoMention]

QUOTE(joemm210 @ Jan 16 2008, 04:53 AM)

they said they didnt take any money to go blu-ray only

That is about the funniest thing I've read.  They didn't take any money... sure they didn't.  
http://formatwarcent...n-from-the-bda/

And there are plenty of other articles claiming the same.  Sure, it could all be one big "rumor" but I highly doubt it.  

HD-DVD is not dead.  All the people that say the PS3 installed base is the cause of HD-DVD demise, I have only 1 thing to say to you.  WAL-MART.  Yes, that is correct.  9 million PS3 is nothing.  How many cheapo APEX DVD players from WAL-MART do you think are in people's homes.  The average consumer is not an audio/videophile.  If Toshiba comes out with a $100 HD-DVD player, the average Joe will walk into WAL-MART and see that it plays HD movies on his HDTV.  He will then see the Blu-Ray player for way more.  Which will common-man Joe pick?  Clearly not the expensive one.  

The key to success will be the hardware.  But how do you get it into people's homes?  Make it cheap.  Stop thinking that the majority of the population fits in the middle or upper class and can spend hundreds on this technology.  If that were the case, we wouldn't have any problem jumping over to only HDTV right now.  The truth is that a very large percentage of the population cannot afford a fancy new $1000 tv.  In fact, the average person today can probably not afford either HD-DVD or BluRay.  However, if Toshiba makes the players really affordable and ceases to produce SD-DVD players, then it is clear which one our good friend Joe will buy.  If Sony made Blu-Ray players $100, the same would apply.  However I just don't see that happening in this lifetime.  

It will all come done to price.  How much is Joe Schmoe willing to pay?