Post by: Movax on July 08, 2008, 01:03:00 PM
As many of you may know, there is something going on. Even if you know nothing about the economy, you've seen the increase in price of gas, and likely the price of food has affected you as well.
As a member of this forum, I feel I should share with you what I have learned and what I think you can do to help yourself. First of all, don't ignore this. You should do your research and look into what is going on. Don't fall into the thought process that this is beyond your understanding, or that "they" will never let things get out of control. Things could get very bad at an accelerating rate. You could see your wealth and standard of living plummet very quickly.
The big picture is quite controversial, and I'll gladly expand on it if there is interest. But to sum it up, inflation and oil prices are one way the Federal Reserve is taking what they can from the people of the US. This topic borderlines on conspiracy, so I'll skip this for now.
Even if there is no conspiracy, it cannot be denied that the Fed, along with the US Government have screwed up. The US is in a state of massive debt, the credit market is collapsing and so is the US dollar. It's unlikely (nearly completely impossible) for the US dollar to be saved. It will continue to plummet towards zero in the next few years. Even if polices were put in motion to save the dollar, the economic outlook for the next five to ten years (maybe longer) is VERY grim.
I don't want to make this too long winded, so if there are questions or interest in this topic, I'll post back.
To secure your future, I strongly suggest:
1. If you are in debt, get out as fast as you can.
2. Start saving. Don't buy that new wide screen TV, stop eating out, and buy only what you need to survive. In effect, lower your standard of living as much as possible and save.
3. If you have investments, GET OUT of the US market. Do not invest in anything that is directly tied to the US.
4. If you can invest, invest in commodities, like gold and silver (that historically retain their value). Even food stocks. Be wary of oil, as the price of oil is likely highly manipulated. (Hard to say).
Please post any questions or criticisms.
Post by: damam on July 08, 2008, 03:05:00 PM
having said that:
my family has replaced all of our trees and plants with stuff that produce berries and fruits in preperation for the hard times. We should be able to start harvesting next year.
Post by: lordvader129 on July 08, 2008, 04:55:00 PM
QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 8 2008, 11:39 AM) 
To secure your future, I strongly suggest:
1. If you are in debt, get out as fast as you can.
as counter intuitive as it may sound inflation is good for those in debt, since the debt is reflected in US dollars if the dollar is devalued the debt similarly becomes less
QUOTE
2. Start saving. Don't buy that new wide screen TV, stop eating out, and buy only what you need to survive. In effect, lower your standard of living as much as possible and save.
saving is pointless if you think the dollar will be worthless in a few years, if this is the case spend it while it can buy something, my great grandparents grew up in the weimar republic in germany, when their parents got paid theyd spend it all that day, because the next day it would be davlued again and you wouldnt be able to buy as much
QUOTE
3. If you have investments, GET OUT of the US market. Do not invest in anything that is directly tied to the US.
actually youd want to avoid investing in things tied to the US dollar not the US itself, so be careful, many foreign economies are tied directly to the US dollar, the following countries currecies are pegged via fixed exchange rate to the US dollar:
Aruban florin
Bahamian dollar
Bahraini dinar
Barbadian dollar
Belize dollar
Belarusian ruble
Bermudian dollar
Cayman Islands dollar
Cuban convertible peso
Djiboutian franc
East Caribbean dollar
Eritrean nakfa
Hong Kong dollar (narrow band)
Jordanian dinar
Lebanese pound
Maldivian rufiyaa
Netherlands Antillean gulden
Omani rial
Qatari riyal
Saudi riyal
United Arab Emirates dirham
QUOTE
4. If you can invest, invest in commodities, like gold and silver (that historically retain their value). Even food stocks. Be wary of oil, as the price of oil is likely highly manipulated. (Hard to say).
if you feel the US economy is going to crash to nil gold and silver wont do you any good unless you plan on leaving the country as soon as possible, instead you want things with practical value, think about it, if your family is starving whats worth more, a pound of gold or a pound of bread?
however, the US is a world economic power, our GDP represents almost a quarter of the entire worlds GDP (not counting the GPD of the above listed countries which are pegged to the US dollar) a US economic crash would be a world economic crash, theres not much youd be able to do about it
anyway, my advice for an economic recession (although it wont be nearly as bad as you predict) is learn trade skills, you have no idea how many thousands of dollars ive saved by doing my own plumbing, electrical, and other home and auto repairs and renovations
and just out of curiosity, how old are you?
Post by: Movax on July 08, 2008, 10:57:00 PM
QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Jul 8 2008, 07:31 PM)
as counter intuitive as it may sound inflation is good for those in debt, since the debt is reflected in US dollars if the dollar is devalued the debt similarly becomes less
True, and to some extent it may help those in debt, but as the price of the cost of living increases the ability to continue making payments becomes more difficult.
QUOTE
saving is pointless if you think the dollar will be worthless in a few years, if this is the case spend it while it can buy something, my great grandparents grew up in the weimar republic in germany, when their parents got paid theyd spend it all that day, because the next day it would be davlued again and you wouldnt be able to buy as much
Also true. Saving will help somewhat but if true hyperinflation is coming, it won't do much in the long run. Stocking up on non-perishable foods is a good alternative.
QUOTE
actually youd want to avoid investing in things tied to the US dollar not the US itself, so be careful, many foreign economies are tied directly to the US dollar, the following countries currecies are pegged via fixed exchange rate to the US dollar:
Another good point, but for some of these countries they have the ability to remove that peg. If that happens, the US will be in more trouble. And when I said avoid things tied to the US I didn't just mean in trade, I was reffering to dollar pegs as well.
QUOTE
if you feel the US economy is going to crash to nil gold and silver wont do you any good unless you plan on leaving the country as soon as possible, instead you want things with practical value, think about it, if your family is starving whats worth more, a pound of gold or a pound of bread?
Gold and Silver are real money. They retain their value. If and when the dollar collapses, Gold will still be worth something. If a new currency is established, you'll be able to get a lot more of it with gold purchased when the dollar still had some worth. Of course it's a bit more complicated than that. If things start to accelerate gold will likely take off like it did in '79/80 and turn into speculative hysteria. But even when it corrects you'd likely be better off.
Paper money is not worth anything more than what someone is willing to accept it for. The only thing besides that previous statement that makes fiat currency worth anything is that the government says it is an acceptable as taxation and for payments of debt. Any country that is not forced to accept the US dollar can decide they no longer want to accept it. And that is already happening.
QUOTE
however, the US is a world economic power, our GDP represents almost a quarter of the entire worlds GDP (not counting the GPD of the above listed countries which are pegged to the US dollar) a US economic crash would be a world economic crash...
This is the type of thinking that gets the US in trouble. What is the GDP based on? Lately it's consumption. The US doesn't make anything anymore. Threre is very little productive industry left. Almost all the products consumed in the US are made in another country, and the GDP numbers are based on consumer spending.
Most of this consumer spending in the last few years has come from loans, lines of credit, credit cards - and the big one - home equity. How long can consumers borrow and spend?
A crash in the US economic system will hurt the world a bit, at first, but they'll do fine without it. Actually, after the world adjusts, many countries (china) will likely be better off.
QUOTE
and just out of curiosity, how old are you?
I'm 31. I've just recently become interested in this due to a friends interest in the markets and his advice.
I'm going to post back some links that may explain this batter than I can...plus It'll be more entertaining and save me some typing...
Post by: Movax on July 09, 2008, 09:56:00 AM
Many feature Peter Schiff. He is one man willing to speak the truth about the current economic situation. Most people laughed at him in previous years, but they are starting to take him more seriously.
The Day the Dollar sets
Dollar collapse:
Our Economy Right Now http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc
Great depression coming?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWPFXMEPJH8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_91pCe2jgHU
Schiff interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1_Yo2BGdUk
Tribute:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXGOq-ys9Js
More political vid by Don Harold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPlvwNVOcDI
Post by: signal-to-noise-ratio on July 24, 2008, 07:24:00 PM
Also check out my post in this forum "Its a logical question" for a spiritual cause and effect type deal.
When the U.S. does go because of the interconnectedness of the world economically it will cause a worldwide depression.
I don't for one second believe that the U.S. is an island. We are where we have gotten, meaning the success, because of our allies and friends (nations all over the world who for years had our back) who we nowadays look down upon. Its sad. But whether its a nation or an individual "pride causes a fall".
We have been blessed also by God(Jesus) but we have also turned our back on Him.
Doing both these things (turning our backs our on allies and Him) has allowed to happen what has, is and will happen. Cause and effect.
Anyway because of the interconnectedness of the world the collapse of the U.S. economy will have a domino effect.
There is talk of coming world war and a middle east conflict some of that is just common information. If the strait of Hormuz closes it will be very bad for world oil markets. For those living in the U.S. what is comforting to me is the fact many unrelated people who do not know each other have had visions it will recover. We will not be anihilated. But there are turbulent times coming.
It seems trite but take time to "stop and smell the flowers" have family get togethers. People will be able to ride this out by reaching out to family and friends. Take joy in little things like playing real chess on a table outside. If there is a high altitude Emp burst all our tech in the lower nationwide 48 will be offline for an extended period of time.
Keep in mind the world is a very turbulent place and like I said no nation is an island. So world events may Ie earthquakes and floods somewhere else will still effect us directly or indirectly even after the recovery.
This post has been edited by signal-to-noise-ratio: Jul 25 2008, 02:26 AM
Post by: Movax on July 25, 2008, 01:15:00 AM
Possible outcomes:
-The US continues to bail out failing banks, and injects more 'stimulus' into the economy and inflates the dollar to worthlessness. Somewhere along this path, major currencies unpeg and speed up the dollars collapse. Euro likely the new reserve currency.
-The US stops bailing out banks, lets them fail, raises interest rates and saves the dollar. But causes a depression.
Of course there can be variations in between these two scenarios, but don't worry, the world will learn to trade without the US. The first scenario is much more likely and is the path that has been chosen for now.
Post by: gronned on July 25, 2008, 06:14:00 AM
I don't follow the market much, but I hope most will, soon, start trading with the Euro instead.
Bush has really turned your country to the shit. Even worse before leaving it now. He will be remembered as one of your worst presidents. If not the worst.
This post has been edited by gronned: Jul 25 2008, 01:18 PM
Post by: bucko on July 25, 2008, 07:31:00 AM
I think the continent that will most be affect is Africa...especially the northern countries like Darfor, it's a sad state of affairs...When America gets it's problem I think we not only have the cold but the flue as well..shame really.
PS I think the media are most to blame...they portray the green thing as a good thing, and don't look at the real problems behind it. And TAX wont solve the problem.
Post by: twistedsymphony on July 25, 2008, 08:44:00 AM
you have a job? you're dependent on them for money.
you have a home? you're dependent on the oil company for heat, and the electric company for electricity.
you need repairs on your home or car? you're dependent on the repair people to fix it for you.
you need food? you're dependent on the supermarket to provide you with food.
you need protection from unruly starving people? you're dependent on on the police.
what happens when those things go away?
I live in NH, in the winter the temperature can drop below freezing and never return, I need oil to heat my home... the last time they filled me tank it cost me $900 and I need to get it filled a few times a year. I'm getting ready to install some solar heat panels, this will drop my dependency on heating oil by over 80%
Doing that, I'm no longer dependent on the oil companies to provide heat for my home. I'm doing that first because that's the most volatile dependency I have right now.
I do my own home and auto repairs, I have the tools and skills I need to get those things done. These skills are also handy because if I were ever to lose my job I could find work doing any number of things...
"saving" your money would be foolish... all you're doing at that point is pooling your assets to be dependent on the bank or whatever form of currency you've chosen. Own a piece of land, a home, a car, skills and education or some other asset that will still have value in a crashed economy is worth a whole lot more than a pile of money, regardless of the currency.
....
Also consider how well prepared the people around you are as well. If the people in your city and state and stable enough to weather the hard economic times then you're much more likely to fair better as well. There are some places that are better to live than others.
There's a reason why the freestate project is in NH... I hate the weather here, but there's no other place in the US I'd rather live.
This post has been edited by twistedsymphony: Jul 25 2008, 03:50 PM
Post by: Movax on July 25, 2008, 02:32:00 PM
Commodities that people consume, have true worth and that is why gas, food and related items are going up. Things people can do without, despite how nice they are, are declining. (Big vehicles, electronics - though electronics always tend to get a bit cheaper.)
Silver and gold have true worth and that is why I recommend looking into owning some, either through ETFs, mining stocks, or physical metals in your hand. They will always be worth some reasonable amount and be redeemable for a fair value in current dollars no matter where inflation goes. Physical metals are always the most risk free.
Post by: lordvader129 on July 25, 2008, 02:50:00 PM
QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 25 2008, 01:08 PM)
Silver and gold have true worth and that is why I recommend looking into owning some, either through ETFs, mining stocks, or physical metals in your hand. They will always be worth some reasonable amount and be redeemable for a fair value in current dollars no matter where inflation goes. Physical metals are always the most risk free.
again, goign back to my previous point this requires 2 things
1: there is a market for it
2: you can get to that market to sell it
the level of economic collapse you are anticipating will effectively destroy any market for anything not needed to survive, meaning youd have to leave the country for your gold and silver to be worth anything, and if you can do that when there is no economy in the US youd be better off doing it now and not even worrying about the dollar anymore
Post by: Movax on July 25, 2008, 04:43:00 PM
Why did coins contain silver until the '60s? Because silver had value. It wasn't until money become too inflated that silver was removed. (A silver $0.25 coin would have had more silver in it than a quarter's worth).
I don't see why you think there needs to be a 'market'. If paper money because worthless, people will still need to use some form of money to trade beyond a pure barter system. Besides that, my point is gold and silver will HOLD their value. They are always in demand in some form or another and they will always have value. How much value is in a piece of paper with nothing backing it?
You may find this interesting:
http://en.wikipedia..../Liberty_Dollar
Post by: lordvader129 on July 27, 2008, 01:44:00 PM
QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 25 2008, 03:19 PM)
There doesn't need to be a market for it. What was used before fiat currency and accepted everywhere? Gold and silver.
gold will hold its value for a long time, but not forever if what you anticipate comes to pass, you arent positing a recession or depression, you posit the total economic collapse of the united states
what will hold value forever are items with practical value, so let me pose a question to you, both our families are starving, you have the last loaf of bread in town and i have a bar of gold, are you saying that will sell the only bit of food you have to get the gold? because i sure wouldnt, and this would be the situation in many urban areas in the future you envision
my great grandfather grew up in germany after WW1, the hyperinflation under the weimar republic is similar to what you seem to be anticipating here, gold was worthless to the average german at that time because you couldnt eat it, couldnt wear it and couldnt burn it
and ive seen the liberty dollar, its a scam, they arent selling you a fixed amount of gold or silver, they are basing the value of the liberty dollar on the value of the US dollar, and how much gold or silver that will buy
essentially they are counting on people not making note of "moveups" (they dont call it inflation so they can fool the suckers) and spending an "old" liberty dollar as if it were a "new" liberty dollar, its sort of like drawing a zero on a one dollar bill and then getting your little brother to give change for a 10
Post by: Movax on July 27, 2008, 09:50:00 PM
QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Jul 27 2008, 04:20 PM)
ive seen the liberty dollar, its a scam, they arent selling you a fixed amount of gold or silver, they are basing the value of the liberty dollar on the value of the US dollar, and how much gold or silver that will buy
Whether their approach is correct is debatable, but I posted that information to show the interest is there, and faith in the US $ is diminishing. It's reported that there are/were over $20 million dollars in circulation.
As was said, we are in a global economy now. You really think it would be that difficult to trade in gold, in whatever form, for some inflated cash so you could go buy some bread?
Post by: lordvader129 on July 28, 2008, 10:58:00 AM
QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 27 2008, 08:26 PM)
As was said, we are in a global economy now. You really think it would be that difficult to trade in gold, in whatever form, for some inflated cash so you could go buy some bread?
since the dollar is backed by the us economy/GDP for the dollar to be devalued to nil gdp would have to drop from 13 trillion to 0, meaning there would be no industry, not business, no nothinbg in the united states, so no reason for anyone to come here to trade, effectively cutting us off from the rest of the global economy
of course this discussion is silly, as your predictions are all but impossible, and were clearly hyperbole (we would likely switch from a fiat system back to a gold standard if economic value dropped below 300 billion) but you havent stated that they are hyperbole so ill keep pressing the issue
Post by: Movax on July 28, 2008, 11:34:00 AM
The dollar is valued by what the rest of the world thinks it is worth: http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/dxy
Why is what I am saying impossible? I never claimed the dollar would inflate to nothing. Of course at some point something would be done (Amero..?).
Post by: lordvader129 on July 28, 2008, 03:31:00 PM
QUOTE
I never claimed the dollar would inflate to nothing.
QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 8 2008, 11:39 AM)
It will continue to plummet towards zero in the next few years.
^^
Post by: Movax on July 28, 2008, 04:31:00 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_dollar
This post has been edited by Movax: Jul 28 2008, 11:48 PM
Post by: lordvader129 on July 28, 2008, 06:53:00 PM
QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 28 2008, 03:07 PM)
Towards. Hmm.. I never said it would make it there. I don't know how low it would have to go before a new currency would have to be introduced. I doubt it could, and hope it doesn't get as bad as Zimbabwe.
http://en.wikipedia....mbabwean_dollar
is there some other direction something can plummet that you had to add "towards zero" lol
Post by: melongstrike on October 05, 2008, 01:53:00 PM
Before anything, I remember years ago when I learned the Fed wasn't really part of the US. Nor was it regulated or overseen by an additional entity. I had an idea to write a movie script about the fall of the U.S. and the feds role maybe 6 years ago but didn't have enough info about the fed to do it (side note: I guess some big time writer will cash in)
Since the bailout passed and many predict this move will offer life support for approx 2-3years if that; but ultimately lead to the collapse of the dollar. I am still torn as to what precautions to take.
My 30k investment already took a 7k hit. I can completely withdraw all money and just keep the cash on hand so when things come back to normal I won't lose any physical money only value till things balances out again. Additionally I was contemplating investing my money in the yen or euro.
My girl wants to take the $ we have and move to another country.
I am a firefighter so I know our work will be required but if the value of the dollar goes down the toilet and employers are unable to pay employees what will be the state of our public servant services.
Although we normally attempt to live beneath our means we have already started trimming the fat around our lives trying to become leaner, in addition to planting trees, plants, herbs, we can grow and sell.
Though we have cut back spending there still remains 2 big purchases to make which includes firearms (pistol for the fiance and a shot gun for me) with 2 bullet proof guns.
Take care everyone, protect your family and loved ones. I am sure we will survive whatever is thrown at us but in what condition I don't know.
Your concerns, criticisms, comments are welcomed
Post by: signal-to-noise-ratio on October 12, 2008, 03:01:00 AM
I honestly believe what people should be doing now is two things.
Buying extra Food say3 to 6 months. (The web bot project has talked about this collapse since the beginning of this year and other people Ie Gibson longer. ) People should be buying food and any other extra supplies they will need for 6 months. Many different things could make this global economic meltdown much worse say war with Iran disrupting the oil markets. Or a derrivitives market implode or the LIBOR spirialing out of control just to name a few.
The other thing people should do is study history and learn about the collapse of empires or the temporary weakening of them read up on the great depression learn about cycles in civilization. Also look at what usually comes before collapses or restructuring of empires. The cycle we are in right now will most likely continue to get worse and I dont mean just economic I mean the nation as a whole. One of the things that annoys me is God is NOT republican or democratic and voting for a canidate IE will not make you a better Christian. God has levels with which he deals with people and nations 1favor 2mercy 3judgement 4wrath. Highest is favor. Least is wrath. Voting in a president will not fix everything. So people need to really start praying and asking God for help and stop calling people pagans for voting for democrats cause NEITHER party will fix our country unless we having blessing. Stop pointing the finger at others and see if you are doing all you can to petition God for help for country, helping people in your community and spread message of forgiveness of sins.
But anyway people should be storing up food. Back in the day IE 1800s people were more self reliant Ie the frontierspeople. When the technology craps out probablly late next year as different people have had visions of an russian missle sub emp attack at start of ww3 there wont be any more cell pc etc. Watch the movie broken arrow and search youtube for emp. If the emp is strong enough it will blow the diodes in all the electronics within its range. This would make sophisticated electronics worthless.I know for myself growing up most of my life in suburbia I am trying to learn things from my cousins on being more self reliant as they have lived in the country most of their lives. But yeah dont panic use wisdom and prepare and if you dont end up needing food you can eat it over time saving on food bills but I recommend you check out both thomas gibson prophecy and webbot since both say some stuff is coming.
Post by: Movax on November 30, 2008, 04:39:00 PM
Things are getting worse, obviously!
There is always a bigger picture.. in the media, in things we take for granted..
This crash is just beginning.
Disclaimer - I don't pretend to know everything. This is my opinion, and what I believe after looking at the facts. I might be completely wrong! But:
If you have savings of any kind, protect yourself now with investments in gold and silver. They are the only thing that will guarantee some form of safety. Gold as dropped in price since I started this thread, but not nearly as much as the markets, or other commodiites (example oil) and gold has risen $80 in the past two weeks. This is no promise that it will continue this trend at this time, but it is likely.
Why gold?
Watch "money as debt" - Search for it on google video. This will give you a better understanding of monetary metals (commodity currency).
The safest way to be invested in precious metals as a hedge against inflation - or disaster - is to own gold in silver - I mean really own it - hold it in your hand. No matter what happens it will have value. You can invest in paper gold - shares of mining companies, or ETF funds that track gold - but if things get too bad too fast you may not be able to cash out in time.
Of course there are other ways to hedge against bad times as mentioned - food, smokes, alcohol - all will always have value to people no matter what.
Some people say it's too late - stay in the markets and ride it out if you haven't got out already. I say you are risking everything. The Dow is in the 8000 range - there is still a lot of potential to go down. If you have got out and are holding cash - you are still risking everything.
This may sound crazy, impossible.. but this is just the tip of the iceberg. Things are likey to get MUCH worse. Too many people's minds are locked into the matrix. Open your mind and consider what could happen. Look at Wiemar Gernmany. Look at Zimbabwe. This is recent history. Have people gotten that much smarter in a few years? Have the rich become more selfless and ready to do the right thing to fix this crisis for the good of the middle class? Or do they want to keep what they have obtained during the creation of this mess?
This post has been edited by Movax: Dec 1 2008, 12:44 AM
Post by: Rustmonkey on December 08, 2008, 03:47:00 PM
Post by: Reaper527 on December 08, 2008, 09:12:00 PM
QUOTE(Rustmonkey @ Dec 8 2008, 06:23 PM)
We're going to see alot more regulation... especially after the lame ducks are out... Reaganomics has obviously failed...
do you not understand what actually caused the financial mess we are in now? this wasn't under regulation, this was the CRA and other legislation pushed through by barney frank and chris dodd. their regulations forced banks to make high risk loans to low income families, or face federal penalties.
these families wouldn't have been eligible for the loans without the involvement of these democratic politicians, and guess what. there was a reason they wouldn't have been eligible, and that was that they couldn't afford the loans. when push came to shove, guess what happened, they defaulted on the loans they couldn't afford, and dragged the entire economy down with them.
we wouldn't have gotten ourselves into this mess if we let the market manage itself to begin with.
Post by: Movax on December 12, 2008, 12:18:00 PM
-OTC derivatives - This is the killer:
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in this way. The OTC derivative market is the largest market for derivatives, and is unregulated. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the total outstanding notional amount is $596 trillion.
and...
-quickly mounting US debt
-Falling US dollar (long term - recently there has been a rally, might be over)
-loss of manufacturing base
-negative national savings rate
-massive trade deficit
lots more but that is off the top of my head.
Post by: sarbo on January 07, 2009, 10:43:00 PM
Post by: Movax on October 19, 2009, 05:15:00 PM
Things will be very different in the coming decade.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...id=p47007690112
Post by: lordvader129 on October 21, 2009, 11:03:00 AM
although i highly doubt that will happen either
Post by: signal-to-noise-ratio on October 31, 2009, 05:43:00 PM
Im not a lover of being off the gold standard. But this guy seems to have some insight of upcoming currency policy eventhough he worked with treasury and the fed. What he says seems to make sense.
* OCTOBER 22, 2009, 10:49 P.M. ET
Alan Meltzer
"Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
Don't be fooled by the bond market. Banks are holding prices down because they can buy Treasurys with free money from the Fed. The United States is headed toward a new financial crisis. History gives many examples of countries with high actual and expected money growth, unsustainable budget deficits, and a currency expected to depreciate. Unless these countries made massive policy changes, they ended in crisis. We will escape only if we act forcefully and soon." more of article at link
http://online.wsj.co...1193581802.html
His bio and credentials
http://en.wikipedia....i/Allan_Meltzer
Here of course is bbc version in audio interview.
http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/p004t22j
"The world is not yet out of the current financial crisis, and already there are fears that America is hurtling down the road towards another one. That's the disturbing scenario posed by US economist Allan Meltzer.
He worries that the current rescue measures taken by the central bank the US Federal Reserve will have unintended consequences. He fears that vast amounts of money sloshing around in US banks, interest rates at almost zero, and oceans of red ink in the US budget, could sow the seeds for rising inflation and ultimately, a dollar and debt crisis." more at link and audio to listen to
These sound to me like real problems. Its like steering a ship to avoid a rock then stay on the new course while headed for a new set of rocks but still worried about the old ones you already past. Thats the gist of it I get.
Post by: Movax on November 18, 2009, 07:50:00 AM
QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Oct 21 2009, 12:03 PM)
i doubt we'll see "the end" of the dollar, worst case scenario the Fed will just peg it to the Euro or some other more stable currency, or even a commodity like oil
although i highly doubt that will happen either
I don't understand your post. What you said is similar to what I said, yet you make it sound like I am wrong. I said "end of", yes, but I also said "new and different".
Oil is not a good currency. It has only been important for the last 100 to 200 years, and it gets used up. Gold has a track record of thousands of years as currency and has few uses outside of that.
Pegging the dollar to the euro = end of the US dollar. Simple idea, but it can't work as there are still many more dollars to be created. You can't peg unless you want to print a ton more euros too, then we are back at the beginning again.
Post by: lordvader129 on November 21, 2009, 08:09:00 PM
QUOTE(Movax @ Nov 18 2009, 08:50 AM)
I don't understand your post. What you said is similar to what I said, yet you make it sound like I am wrong. I said "end of", yes, but I also said "new and different".
Oil is not a good currency. It has only been important for the last 100 to 200 years, and it gets used up. Gold has a track record of thousands of years as currency and has few uses outside of that.
Pegging the dollar to the euro = end of the US dollar. Simple idea, but it can't work as there are still many more dollars to be created. You can't peg unless you want to print a ton more euros too, then we are back at the beginning again.
i didnt quite understand your point, but i do now, as for the gold standard, it wouldnt work, the reason the US switched off the gold standard is that there simply wasnt enough to go around
currently there are over 800 billion US dollars in circulation, yet the US gold reserves are only about 250 billion, to fully back all US dollars with gold the value the dollar would have to be reduced by at least 2/3
but that only counts physical currency (paper and coins) the reserve requirement for US banks is 10%, which means when you deposit 100 dollars in the bank they are only required to keep 10, and the other 90 is then given out as loans or paid as interest into other accounts, when you account for this the US money supply is over 10 trillion, and the fact of the matter is there is no physical commodity that can back that (the only current commodity that could come close is our oil reserves, about 2 trillion)
the euro could never be commodity backed either, as the euro supply is about 8.5 trillion
although the more i look into the more it becomes clear that a fiat monetary system is one of the only things keeping the recession from being even worse
Post by: Movax on November 23, 2009, 02:17:00 PM
A gold standard is not the answer, though it could work. You say that without fiat the recession would be worse. Short term, in some sense, yes, but without fiat currency we would have never been in a situation nearly this bad to begin with.
There is no reason that some kind of gold backing can't work. Inflation is theft, plain and simple. Real interests rates on savings are barley zero, if not negative - people have to gamble their savings in the markets and random investments just to get ahead of inflation.
The reason the US switched of the gold standard is because they printed way too much paper to fund their wars.
Post by: lordvader129 on November 23, 2009, 08:03:00 PM
it can however allow the economy to grow too fast, but this is why the fed needs to be more proactive in slowing speculative bubbles (of course a modicum of common sense among new investors wouldnt hurt)
all this uninformed talk about how great the gold standard is just allows con artists to take advantage of peoples naivete with scams like the liberty dollar
Post by: Movax on November 24, 2009, 05:39:00 AM
You have fallen for the bankers lies. Inflation is not necessary. Inflation by definition is too many dollars and not enough goods, resulting in the appearance of rising prices. There is no way this can be truly a good thing. Inflation allows those who get the money in their hands to steal as soon as they spend it.. this is typically governments or government contractors, big banks, etc.
A gold (and silver) standard would be ideal if could keep up with population growth. There are issues with it but it would at least be honest. Governments always find a way to become corrupt but it would be a good start. The US had some form of gold standard up to at least the great depression and to some extent the 1970s... there was no economic growth until after this?
Please watch.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afWqKcqntfs
This post has been edited by Movax: Nov 24 2009, 01:39 PM
Post by: Movax on November 03, 2010, 10:15:00 PM
The Federal reserve today, along with other programs is now going to officially create almost a trillion (900 billion) more dollars by June. If you have any kind of savings, consider ditching cash and bonds, get gold and/or silver investments.
That there are serious problems with the monetary system should become apparent to most in the next ~6 months
I would like to recommend this video to anyone that is the least bit interested in this stuff, I found it does a good job of showing how we got here and the seriousness of the situation:
Post by: signal-to-noise-ratio on November 17, 2010, 02:29:00 AM
Post by: lordvader129 on November 17, 2010, 04:19:00 AM
QUOTE(signal-to-noise-ratio @ Nov 17 2010, 03:29 AM)
I didnt think this deserved its own topic because its low on specifics but there is talk in the news of a Greece default on its debt at the end of this month. One prediction is this would lead to in weeks after a Mexico default and then a 6 month bank holiday in United states. Just something to keep an eye on to see what happens.
that was predicted almost 3 years ago
Post by: signal-to-noise-ratio on November 17, 2010, 08:33:00 PM
QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Nov 17 2010, 06:19 AM)
Exactly it hasnt happened yet. Like the guy back in 1970s who predicted the mp3 player and buying emusic. Have to wait and see if it does or not. How things? Hope all is well.
Post by: lordvader129 on November 18, 2010, 05:01:00 AM
QUOTE(signal-to-noise-ratio @ Nov 17 2010, 09:33 PM)
Exactly it hasnt happened yet. Like the guy back in 1970s who predicted the mp3 player and buying emusic. Have to wait and see if it does or not. How things? Hope all is well.
my point is people have been saying the economy will completely collapse "very soon" for years (and not just the 3 years of this crisis, its been going on for as long as ive been old enough to pay attention)
and the response is always the same "its still coming, its happening soon" well honestly im getting sick of waiting, will someone kick the stool out from under the economy already? my uncles stockpile of canned goods from the S&L crisis is starting to rot
Post by: signal-to-noise-ratio on December 01, 2010, 06:33:00 AM
QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Nov 18 2010, 07:01 AM)
my point is people have been saying the economy will completely collapse "very soon" for years (and not just the 3 years of this crisis, its been going on for as long as ive been old enough to pay attention)
and the response is always the same "its still coming, its happening soon" well honestly im getting sick of waiting, will someone kick the stool out from under the economy already? my uncles stockpile of canned goods from the S&L crisis is starting to rot
Yeah I know the feeling. Ive gotten to the point where I try to avoid this stuff but some friends randomly tell me scenarios. As it stands right now work has been slow so personally Ive been hurting but hopefully the economy will get better. Just have this all in back of my mind.
Post by: Movax on February 13, 2011, 03:53:00 PM
Gold/silver are going to extreme prices as a result of cost push inflation that is here now and will continue, as the Fed continues to monetize the debt.
If you have no savings, no 401k, no retirement funds, this is not so important to you.
If you do have savings, you need to understand what I am talking about and decide if you are going to do something about it.
If you are a speculator, get some leverage and make a massive amount of money in what will likely turn into the most spectacular bubble yet, and maybe the last one for a generation or two. (And hope 'the system' stabilizes into something were that profit matters). Silver is still cheap relative to gold.
Watch this well done video:
Post by: Movax on August 06, 2011, 12:20:00 AM
QUOTE
my point is people have been saying the economy will completely collapse "very soon" for years (and not just the 3 years of this crisis, its been going on for as long as ive been old enough to pay attention)
Baby boomer generation? Sounds like my parents. Things were supposed to collapse in the late 70's and didn't, but things are much worse now. that should be obvious. It should also be obvious that just because something hasn't happened in a few generations doesn't mean it won't ever again.
QUOTE
well honestly im getting sick of waiting, will someone kick the stool out from under the economy already?
Your wish may come true, unfortunately. http://www.zerohedge...ative-full-text