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[obcd]

Basically all the modern softmod's will prevent your xbox from going on live.
You can still boot the xbox with an original game disk in the drive.
If that game looks for updates on live, you are in trouble.
The mod isn't active, but microsoft will detect the change of harddisk and ban your xbox.

If you have a router with a buildin firewall, you might be able to set it up so that the port that the xbox uses to go on live is blocked. I am sure you can google up somewhere what port'(s) are used.

regards.