i'm pretty sure this error means you're banned. i updated my eeprom and after i did i got this error. i didn't change my hdd though. so i have a feeling ms checks the hdd against all the ones in their little banned database. if there is a match they don't seem to ban you outright. i have a feeling if i were to get a new drive and toss it in it might work. but since my current drive matches a drive in their list they just don't respond. and it isn't a router setting or anything else unless one of the first 3 tests come up in red. if all the ip, dns and shit tests pass and the last one that tries to connect to live doesn't then it's them actively rejecting you. i would go out and buy a new hdd to test it but i don't care that much. if i find an hd around my house that i don't use anymore i'll pop it in, format it, etc and update everyone on what happens.