My personal opinion on this matter is that it is a combination of everything. Why does it have to be one thing banning xbox's?
"Xbox Live has recently initiated additional security measures to ensure that those connecting to Xbox Live with modified hardware will be removed from the system."
It doesnt say anything about having one defining thing. It will be very hard to determine what it is, and even harder the more 'new' ways there are to get banned. I am using a matrix with a larger hd, and havent gotten banned yet, but if i did get banned, im assuming a new gamers tag, new hard drive (any size not necisarily stock), and new eeprom would fix the situation.
why doesnt someone who is banned try doing this, and simply use one of those 2 free month codes so ur not wasting 50 bucks if it doesnt work? you used to be able to get them off ebay for $5, do a search on xbox trial. (not sure if they are still around)
also about MS losing money to hackers and losing money on every cosole, If you were bill gates and had the power to make the decision to take out all the 'hackers' (assuming the technology was already there) maybe he was tolerant before but halo 2 was the last straw. and if he can successfully keep all the 'hackers' continuously banned, forcing us to buy a second xbox thats even more money he can potentially make. also with halo 2 coming out he may not be worried about the chump change he will make on us off of live because overall im thinkin there are a lot more unmodded xbox's then modded. heres where the money is coming from:
"MS has announced that pre-orders for Xbox-exclusive title Halo 2 have passed 1.5 million in the United States alone, breaking videogame records and guaranteeing first-day revenues higher than any movie in history." from xbox-scene's front page
*edit* in no way however am i saying we should give up or stop trying to figure this out tho.