QUOTE(foxhunt99 @ Nov 9 2009, 05:29 PM)

MS will probably add some kind of check on game disc itself, so if even you use a backup offline on a unbanned modded console it will somehow figure it out, and save the info and send to MS next time when you connect to a live using a unmodded console.
Yes, but this isn't against the ToS as far as I can see. Playing backups on a modded console and originals on Live on another console is not against the ToS. I'm not saying MS wouldn't ban you, but you shouldn't be banned, as I don't see what rule you are breaking.
I'm sure someone wil chirp in with something from the moral highground. All I am interested in is a good argument as to why the unmodified console deserves to be banned.
QUOTE(aWholeNewMe @ Nov 9 2009, 05:53 PM)

Yes but will it then send the ban to my HD (or new game disk) and ban my offline console the next time the HD is attached?
This would mean flagged consoles (and we have no idea if we are flagged or not so any modded system that played on Live) that never go online anymore would still be under constant threat of being banned at any time when doing any of the following -
- Playing a new game
- Using a HD from a unmodded system that goes on Live
- Updating dashboard from USB
I think it is clear that nobody has been banned without being connected to Live (read: while trying to connect to or while currently using Live). Therefore, I find it unlikely that an unbanned console which has been permanently taken offline would ever get banned by any means. I don't believe the HDD would ever transfer some kind of banning software and I don't believe that an original game would ever contain such software.
I have no proof, but it seems logical (to me) to believe what I do.