i think the most important detail is your console mfg date and whether the drive was spoofed
* console from february 2006 - flashed firmware since may 2006
* have had numerous flashed drives and none were ever spoofed
* played at least 1 backup in april(before nba playoffs), but that was offline; last time i played a backup on live was in march 2007
* have mostly stayed away from live for about 3-4 weeks(since nba playoffs), but when i have played online it was with original gamedisc
* restored original firmware and downloaded all updates yesterday; played h3 today
* not banned
from the comments in this thread, it seems to me that the consoles that did not require a drive spoof(pre-may 2006) are possibly not affected by this banhammer. however, i am also not going to reflash my console until somebody a lot smarter than me says something to this effect.
in the meantime, if anybody with a ban that see a similar pattern in their console usage, please let me know here or via pm.