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[nickthegreat]

QUOTE(twistedsymphony @ Sep 13 2006, 03:50 PM)

so for the Xbox 360
~6 million * (7/~80) = ~525K

for the PS2
~130 million * (2/~400) = ~650K

So you'll see, even with the incredibly small 360 install base, due to the low number of available games and the high attach rate a publisher can more the likely come close to selling just as many copies on the Xbox 360 as they can on the PS2 TODAY... this is why you see a lot of Xbox 360 games in the best seller lists right along side their PS2 counterparts... it's because of the high attach rate at such an early point in the 360's life.

Nicely put, but i have to disagree slightly about the install base not being more important than attach rates. Maybe Ive made a huge assumption here but I thought attach rates referred to the number of games bought with a console (if they are av. numbers of games owned on a console over its lifetime my arguement falls flat). + i will have wasted a fair amount of time

A high attach rate is very useful for attracting developers - no argument there.

But perhaps this addition to your equation will help me to explain what I mean (I know its flawed -its just an attempt to illustrate my point):

install base * ((attach rate + sales per console per week, independant of a console purchase) /number of games on the market+1)

It is not strictly true to state that attach rates represent the willingness to purchase games over the period in which a consumer owns a console. It is a static look @ one point in time (from the perspective of the consumer) - the time of purchase. It does not truely reflect the spending patterns post-'console purchase'. As you mention, consumers take a 'hit' when buying a console. Launch games (as a console's launch factors into overall attach rate figures) could be poor. Console purchases are also often prospective in relation to future games. All of which mean that attach rates may not reflect the number of games that will be purchased in the future per customer.

Take the Ps2 as an example - piss poor attach rate as you stated - but I don't really believe that xbox owners ended up owning double the number of games on average, as the attach rate, and your equation, would suggest. - Therefore for a developer the attach rate should should not factor in as strongly as the userbase: especially if you discard the assumption that all games are equal. - devs are likely to have a certain amount of pride in their game, and therefore consider it worthy of purchase. Therefore as a developer they may underestimate the dangers you've highlighted of placing a game into a market with a large install base but low attach rates, and a large games selection to choose from. They will overestimate the importance of the 'consoles sold' figure: leading them to focus upon this market.

Don't get me wrong, that was a very good account of attach rates you gave (*sorry* I tried rewording that bit to try to not make it sound patronising - thats not my intention - basically I found your points to be valid and enlightening ) but I just feel that the userbase is, and should be, a prime concern. In anycase, my previous point of lowering the 360 price point to half of the Ps3's will still help both the install base and attach rate - due to the point you made about the initial monetary 'hit' and the obvious price point affect upon sales.

Edit: Ha - $60 for SFII?? I paid £60 - $112. At a guess (a very rough guess) I bought it 10 years ago. @2% inflation per year I work that out to be $135 (but then again Im not great @ maths )

[incognegro]

From my observations over the years, The attach is great to gauge potential (maximum) sales but the install base is a good way to determine minimum sales expectations. Look at it this way, if your game is crappy and u just want to make a quick buck off of some licensed game ur developing then it makes sense to release it on the system with the highest install base because if they can sell it to 10% of the install base then thats still a decent amount of copies. I mean 10% of 100 million is still 100,000. In the case of the 360 only the games that are highly rated are gonna sell much because less ppl are buying the crappy ones.

So the attach rate thing has its advantages and disadvantages to the publishers. It doesn't mean that its less important though.

[griffin XXI]

QUOTE(incognegro @ Sep 14 2006, 07:43 AM)

From my observations over the years, The attach is great to gauge potential (maximum) sales but the install base is a good way to determine minimum sales expectations. Look at it this way, if your game is crappy and u just want to make a quick buck off of some licensed game ur developing then it makes sense to release it on the system with the highest install base because if they can sell it to 10% of the install base then thats still a decent amount of copies. I mean 10% of 100 million is still 100,000. In the case of the 360 only the games that are highly rated are gonna sell much because less ppl are buying the crappy ones.

So the attach rate thing has its advantages and disadvantages to the publishers. It doesn't mean that its less important though.

Sorry. Correction. Should be 10,000,000.00.

[incognegro]

But if you have a console with a decent install base but the attach rate is bad (like the psp) Thats not particularly attractive to devs. The DS is more attractive despite the install base (which is huge) cause you know ppl are gonna actually buy the games!

I mean if the 360 is not even out a year with a 5 million install base while it already has a handful of million selling games then thats particularly exciting for devs (and MS also). It puts more confidence in the system

[ikecomp]

While the attach rate is useful to gauge the potential sells of games on a platform, I feel its somewhat misleading in the case of the 360. Think about all the retailers out there that were forcing people who wanted to buy the system to purchase them in bundles with 3 and 4 games they didn't want. I know MS is not the first company to do this but the retailers in which they gave there product to sure took it to a scale which I've never seen before. There were bundles out there for over a $1,000 selling like hot cakes. Sure if you looked hard enough or scoured xbox forums like these long enough you could find a 360 or tips to help you find a 360 by itself but your average consumer looking for a 360 during the holidays was not about to go through that much trouble. I personally have friends who bought the bundles and just sold the games on ebay to buy the game(s) they really wanted. So I bet if you were to take a look at the attach rate right now as opposed to at launch it would be much lower even though there are more games available.

[incognegro]

The attach rate right now is actually not much lower now than it was then

[twistedsymphony]

QUOTE(incognegro @ Sep 15 2006, 02:53 PM)

The attach rate right now is actually not much lower now than it was then

That's right IIRC eurogamer had some stats recently that stated the attach rate jumped up to it's highest ever after the release of the recent crop of games (Prey, LOTR BFMEII, NCAA Football, etc.)

[ikecomp]

I stand corrected

http://www.eurogamer...rticle_id=66732

4.6 games for every console purchased is a lot. Exactly how are they calculating attach rate. Do they somehow include live arcade sells or number of games sold / number of consoles sold or is it exactly what it seems - people are really buying almost five games everytime they pick-up a console

[incognegro]

QUOTE(nickthegreat @ Sep 15 2006, 09:46 PM)

Then surely this is a prime market to release a good game into: it is a market (apparently) gaging for good games.

Besides, this still ignores the possibility that the huge install base has bought a crap load of games after purchasing the console.

Companies dont look at it that way. They want to know how much would it sell despite the quality of the game. Because Publishers dont make games, so they only care if its playable and marketable. Because of the attach rate of the psp they know that whether the game is good or not they are taking a risk making a game for it. Even if the install base is huge, the attach rate is bad.