I've been trying to follow this topic as closely as possible, but it's tough when there are 20 pages of posts, so I'm not sure if my story is even necessary, but I thought it might be helpful - and possibly even relevant - if I shared my experience.
To start off, no - I have not been banned yet.
I somehow survived the initial wave and I wasn't sure how, but most likely it's because I only had one game that wasn't stealthed and I had only played it once, for about 5 minutes or so (and not on Live). I had upgraded to the latest firmware right before that first ban wave (I think it was iXtreme at that point) and did not even play my XBOX at all until the dust started to settle and I felt it was safe.
Now to the latest bannings. I was on vacation when they happened and my XBOX hadn't even been plugged in for a few weeks. I was pretty sure I wasn't banned yet, but I had no way of telling if I would be banned when I returned from vacation and eventually turned it on. Also, I was a little worried because I was pretty sure I didn't have the absolute newest firmware (I have iXtreme 1.2). Regardless, when I got back from vacation, there was still no update, so I didn't even plug it in until there was some good news and I thought I had a chance of surviving. When this update did come out, I was initially worried because I have a couple of games on that list that may possibly be a "bad Kreon rip." I checked every one of my games, though, and was very happy to find that I didn't have a single game with a "bad Kreon rip."
I figured if the bannings were triggered by the "bad Kreon rip," I would be ok. If not, I figured I was probably already screwed at that point, so last night I finally fired it up so I could get the new Fall update. I am happy to report that I had no problem getting the new dashboard and I have not been banned. Of course, I have no clue whether the ban would take place right away or not, but I had my XBOX connected for well over an hour last night with no problem.
Some other notes:
- Because I like to design my own disc art and print them directly to the discs, I have only used Ritek RiData or Playo inkjet printable DVD+R DL discs. The only disc I ever used with a shiny top was a Memorex and that was my first test to see if I could get a backup running. I'm sure this irrelevant, but I thought I should mention it.
- I've upgraded the firmware a few times when new versions are released, but every time I've done it, I've always flashed back to the original firmware first. I'm not sure if this means anything either, but I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that it's probably a good idea.