I have been banned today. Damn MS. But it was my fault, I knew the risk and now I pay for it. I am just gonna buy another 360 and play my legit games with that.
Anyway, a friend of mine modded his 360 around the same time as me, but never ever got to use a backup on it. He has still not used a backup. He has a 47dj Hitachi I believe with 1.6 Xtreme firmware. He has been playing live all day and yesterday, been in and out of the Halo 3 beta and is still not banned. Everybody I know with a modded console is banned.
I think this could be significant in the realisation that its been backup disks that have been detectable and I believe that Microsoft have been collecting data for months. Another friend of mine hasn't used his xbox since January, turned it on today to see if he'd banned, sure enough, banned. Even though he hasn't been on live AT ALL since January.
Its something to think about and something to add to the information and hopefully someone can figure out what they are doing to detect it. There where simpler ways to stop this Microsoft, you can detect backups, then block them, don't block my £280 console. Now I will buy the cheaper Core system and I will never put another penny down on Xbox live other than the fee to play multiplayer with others, which in itself is a joke.