Yep, a black market will open with "key vaults" from dead modded consoles put on sale...
It's theoretically possible to have a few nasty guys able to get some from not yet sold consoles, and so leading to the risk to have both consoles detected and banned (if both use same key vaults online simultaneously), but honestly the hardware mod to do on not yet sold console is quite huge...
I don't think that will happen, unless the price of the "key vaults" go very high, but in that case, it will be easier to purchase a new console.
But there are still a few hacks to discover. One of them will be to identify in your firmware if you have been marked for a ban. So you can remove the mark before connecting to Live again.
It seems ban happens because you do something unexpected offline. Playing online with original and last version of firmwares seems still valid and not attracting ban. Firmwares authors strongly suggest you create backup with your own original. So, they are made for homebrewing possibility and scratches avoidance. If you get tempted by something else, you will fall. Still, homebrewing and avoiding scratches on your original can be detected as "unexpected event" by dashboard.
Maybe just dump your firmware right after connecting to live with original.
Then do something unexpected.
Then dump again and compare.
It becomes more and more interesting for everyone to mod and master firmware swapping...
Don't forget fall update may just kill any firmware swapping to the new firmware (2BL change) and kill the time attack procedure to get cpu key for those who don't have it yet.
PS: We shouldn't ignore the possibility mark may be done on the memory cards or hard disk... Also need to remove from all the buzz all the posts from people playing games online that are not even available on shelves in their area, in order to have clearer idea of how ban is decided (because their ban is obvious).
This post has been edited by openxdkman: Nov 23 2007, 03:30 PM