As much as Microsoft would like to claim they have comparable HD media, the stuff on xbox live doens't even compare in quality. So in my opinion even with the low attach rates of the HD DVD drive they still have to come out with a blu-ray drive. If they dont' then I along with many other techies are going to be recomending to friends who are looking for a blu-ray player to buy a PS3. That is going to turn out to be a HUGE market boost for Sony. They just have to throw a small amount of marketing at it and everyone will be buying PS3s as the next gen video disc player, and xbox 360 is going to be left out in the cold for anyone looking for HD disc players.
Before someone jumps on me and claims that the Xbox Live market place is great for High Def content; It isn't! Not only isn't there an option to buy, but most if not all of the content has very low bit rates, not that much better then DVDs when compared to blu ray. Let's not forget the lack of even 5.1 audio support in most of the movies as well. Don't get me wrong I think download is the way to go in the future, just Microsoft is botching that lately. They need more content, it ALL should have at least 5.1 audio, HD content needs to double in bit rate, they need to have options to purchase content or a subscription service, they need to improve the player controls a bit(my XBMC box pwns it) and all that needs to be out in the next 3 months.
If it isn't, PS3 is the console to get for HD content because there are farm more sources for Blu-rays then there are for xbox-live downloaded movies. I'd guess most people, myself included who have been holding off purchasing until the war was over, well that time is now. Microsoft is caught without much of an offering in the HD content area, and they aren't squawking if they have any new improvements to their service coming. Just as icing on the cake, as much as I love my 360, I wouldnt' be surprised to see Sony pass it in overall sales just after Christmas this year. Unlike the 360 the PS3 is quiet, doens't have high failure rates, comes with a larger hard drive, more power for video processing, blu-ray disc playback, and many more things that make it more ideal as the market begins to mature this generation.
Just throwing this out there, I love my Xbox 360, and until now have never considered a PS3 but I'm finding it harder and harder to turn away, and let's be honest Microsoft isn't exactly doing all they can to ensure the success of the console. I mean we still don't even have clan support in Live yet, and that should have been out when Halo 3 was released. I hope if anything this serves as a warning to Microsoft, "you've been given all the chances in the world to succeed, but your slowly throwing them away."
Things to do to beat Sony(forget Nintendo for the moment they're playing a different game):
1. FIX THE MANUFACTURING PROBLEMS
2. Quiet your machine
3. add blu-ray support
4. put more programmers into live feature add mode possibly raise the price 5 or 10 bucks per year
5. keep up the job with the game release schedule
6. put pressure on studios to speed up releases
7. FORCE the studios to give you at least 5.1 audio and 720p content
8. Increase hard drive size and for a REASONABLE price
9. Integrate Zune and XBox Live for Music and Movie sake
10. Add a subscription model for the movies
11. Grit your teeth because Sony just got a whole lot more competitive