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[jesterrace777]

While it is true that the computer geeks/i-net generation will be more than happy to adopt a downloadable digital format, no one is factoring in all of the older people/and the non-PC literate.  Case and Point Divx/Xvid have been around for years but they have never run DVD off of the shelves.  Now while it is true that at the moment HD is definitely being lent to the tech-savvy crowd but by 2009 EVERYBODY will be adopting high-def.  Most of these folks would much rather go down to the store and buy a disc and pop it in a standalone player than buy a download and watch it on their PC or run an HDCP type setup.  Furthermore has anyone considered the size of a high-def file?  Especially if they are in 1080p.  A 2 hour + movie can easily run 30GB.  Unless you are on a 10Mbps connection or higher you are talking about something that takes an eternity to download.  This doesn't even account for the large number of people who are still stuck on dial-up.  Imagine D/L'ing a high def file over 56K   .    The point is that we keep forgetting that there are a bunch of people out there who aren't in the tech-savvy category but who will be adopting high-def in large numbers in the next couple of years.  For these people a concrete format that you can simply buy in stores and pop in a standalone player is more appealing.   As for the HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray, only time will tell.

[1nsan3]

digital downloads is nice, except the download times are way too long, our planet earth hasnt grew too much in the internet age, most of the residential world is still on around a 3-5mb line. yea we can upgrade for a huge price... but as of right now digital downloads is not the way to go. i agree with some type of memory card, so far is the better way to go. Disc's just scratch way too easy. I know nothings perfect but cd's are in last place for storage. There like records, and 8-tracks, there getting old.

[cerealkillajme]

QUOTE(jesterrace777 @ Dec 5 2007, 06:29 AM)

While it is true that the computer geeks/i-net generation will be more than happy to adopt a downloadable digital format, no one is factoring in all of the older people/and the non-PC literate.  Case and Point Divx/Xvid have been around for years but they have never run DVD off of the shelves.  Now while it is true that at the moment HD is definitely being lent to the tech-savvy crowd but by 2009 EVERYBODY will be adopting high-def.  Most of these folks would much rather go down to the store and buy a disc and pop it in a standalone player than buy a download and watch it on their PC or run an HDCP type setup.  Furthermore has anyone considered the size of a high-def file?  Especially if they are in 1080p.  A 2 hour + movie can easily run 30GB.  Unless you are on a 10Mbps connection or higher you are talking about something that takes an eternity to download.  This doesn't even account for the large number of people who are still stuck on dial-up.  Imagine D/L'ing a high def file over 56K   .    The point is that we keep forgetting that there are a bunch of people out there who aren't in the tech-savvy category but who will be adopting high-def in large numbers in the next couple of years.  For these people a concrete format that you can simply buy in stores and pop in a standalone player is more appealing.   As for the HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray, only time will tell.

Agreed. I was suprised how many people in this thread think physical media will go away. I grew up out in the country and never had anything better than 56k until I moved into my own apartment in the city and got high speed. Where my dad lives (same place I grew up) he still doesn't have cable, and AFAIK they aren't even planning it yet. The best and only high speed option he has available is a satellite connection, which is rediculously overpriced and has a horrible upload bandwidth. Even if/when our (city ppl) internet is up to speed to handle digital downloads, there will still be millions of people (even in the US) that have no way at all of downloading at any kind of reasonable speed.

Also with storage of digital downloads, I know someone brought some of these points up earlier though: What happens when your HDD dies? I've thought about it alot lately and this would be the worst thing to happen. When you would buy a new HDD how would the download distributors know that your HDD died and this new one is just simply a replacement and not a friends HDD that your filling up for them? And then of course if they did approve you to re-download all your movies again, how long would it take then, especially when you have hundreds of movies?

And having a physical copy of my movies is always a plus for me. I have many of my movies backed up to WMV and watch them from an external HDD connected to my 360. Having a digital list is nice and all, but I much prefer to look over and see 100+ DVD movies on my shelf rather than look through a list of 100 DVD rips on a HDD. And another very good point brought up earlier is what to do when a friend wants to borrow a movie. Not to mention I'm kind of sick how some companies like to look at DRM and licensing. Basically companies no longer want you to own the movie, just a license to it. At least I know when I buy a hard copy of a movie I can always watch it, with digital they could pull crap like limiting the number of times it can be viewed and other things. IMO the ONLY downside to physical media like discs is the fact that they can be scratched, which as long as your careful and/or backup your discs, it's not a problem.

Digital downloads aren't as practical (at least not in the near future) as most think IMO.

[EvilWays]

Ok everyone...breathe!

Now, say it with me:

DVD-9 > Digital Download > HD-DVD  ~ BluRay.

That's right...DVD-9 FTW. HD-DVD and BluRay can have it's marketshare, but it's STILL creampuffed by standard DVD.

Let's take a look at a "niche" market player that helped define the consumer video tape format used by all of us: the porn industry.

They still distribute in DVD-9. They seem to dabble in both HD-DVD and BluRay. They are using digital download moreso than HD-DVD and BluRay. It's very logical to say "Screw HD-DVD and BluRay" when you take out the packaging/shipping/physical storing part of the expenses they incur.

Digital distribution is also a boon for independent studios (as defined as studios who do movies for <= $20M) to keep their costs in check while shooting in Hi-Def. DVD-9 is still cost effective to them, but for BluRay and HD-DVD, it can be cost-prohibitive.

Look at the cost of HD-DVD/BluRay vs. DVD-9 movies and you'll see they cost in the range of $5-20 more than DVD-9. The price of an HD-DVD or BluRay movie isn't exactly stable as the "format war" doesn't do any good for us the consumer. Do any stats take into consideration the free movies just tossed around when you get a player (including the PS3)? Seems like desperation on both sided to me...

The HD-DVD vs. BluRay "war" is a lose-lose situation for the consumer, and people tend to forget there's the digital download option (though that tends to be a technical thing, and possibly the big sticking point for it's lack of mainstream use). So who wins? DVD-9!


Almost forgot: Yes, Michael Bay is an idiot who should be put on a remote island with George Lucas, Uwe Bowell, the Wachowski brothers, Kitamura (Godzilla: Final Wars), and any other god awful directors I forgot and left to rot.

[Chancer]

The telephone infrastructure here will not support High bandwidth connections and struggle for speed as it is. without UK wide change to fibre optic cabling. Huge digital downloads are  not the answer over here.

[Boiker]

QUOTE(Chancer @ Dec 5 2007, 05:33 PM)

The telephone infrastructure here will not support High bandwidth connections and struggle for speed as it is. without UK wide change to fibre optic cabling. Huge digital downloads are  not the answer over here.

This is true. I'm on ADSL at home which is about 2 miles from the exchange, too far to get anymore than 1Mbit. Yes... 1Mbit. However here at Uni we are on fibre optics of 10Mbit.

I do think that DVD-9 will reign for a good few years though. When DVD came out VHS was old news, people needed something better, DVD-9 is still adequate for 99% of people.

[dmitri]

This stuff is in the news every day..  Media owners moving between iTunes or Amazon for digital distribution.  Microsoft on the fence about it since MOST of their money still comes from brick and mortar stores..

Don't think the microsoft doesn't have certain triggers for market conditions.  When it makes financial sense, they will strike and optical will be gone.  This is reliant on ease of use, availability of high[er] speed internet, and storage prices dropping.  You already can get 300GB for $75.  That's about 100 movies digital download.

[stradric]

QUOTE(Tony42077 @ Dec 4 2007, 11:39 PM)

sith, you had me going until I read your sig.... Listen to Al Gore. Please, this guy just needed to find a way to try and stay relevant. I like how he flys a jumbo jet to all of these speaking engagements. Fucking hypocrite douchebag. Look, I've discovered the ManBearPig...

Wow, now there's a very intelligent, well thought-out and original argument!  Oh wait, no.  That's the same moronic right wing talking point that I've heard a billion times before.  I love how now it's a "jumbo jet" too.

Anyway, Michael Bay is a fool.  BluRay and HD DVD are already obsolete thanks to holographic storage, which also uses a disc.  Not only that, but HD DVD is actually superior to BluRay.  BluRay may hold more, but multi-layered HD DVD discs can compete with that.  Bay is obviously biased.

And what's wrong with downloads?  It seems like the best option for the consumer.

[mlmadmax]

While bay is a tool he has a small point. I don't think microsoft wants both formats to fail but they might.

Who cares how HDDVD and blu-ray are doing against each other, total sales of both formats are not even one percent versus regular dvds. Meaning sales are in the shiter.

If a downloading service pops  up with good pq and fast downloads as well as some mass marketing it will destroy the two current hd formats.

[bucko]

This guy is an idiot, I just bought a 360 HD-DVD drive, like a month ago, this guy needs to be fired, imho I want MS to say in PR they fully support this on to many years. I may forward this on to GamerScoreBlog then theyl fire him or tell him of  

[spinr34]

michael bay is stupid. he is mad that he bought a bluray player and that he can't upgrade it and that his movie didn't come out on bluray like he wanted it to. someone needs to slap that man. his movies suck too, k, thx.

[Symph0ny]

Sorry, server timeout double post.

[Symph0ny]

Microsoft may see that both formats are going to fail, it may even be in their best interest.  Michael Bay doesn't realize that Microsoft isn't actively causing any format to fail.  Xbox Live is well overloaded as things are now; if everyone were to start downloading movies  Microsoft would need several times the infrastructure that they have now.

Secondly, both formats are basically killing themselves as it is.  If anyone is actively causing them to fail, it's all the exclusive-contract studios.  Of course, the studios don't want next gen dvd formats to fail, they are just causing a burden that consumers aren't willing to bear.

As it stands, there are $200 hd-dvd players somewhat available, and the $400 PS3 on blu-ray.  Even at $200, the hd-dvd players are selling out, and the PS3 has actually started selling since they brought a $400 price point.  This is great for the format license holders, but the studios and customers really need the price to drop to $150 for a combo unit before next-gen is a decent market.

Oh yeah, and stop charging double for movies just because they're HD.  We aren't going to pay you per pixel.

[88 Ecko Unltd 88]

QUOTE

Oh yeah, and stop charging double for movies just because they're HD. We aren't going to pay you per pixel.

so so tru  

[GSX]

Microsoft is right, digital content download is the future. The problem I see is the average consumers fixation with storing a crap load of discs. They most likely won't want to roll with the ball as mentioned here before. Sooner or later it will happen tho, and they will not have much choice.

As for the isp bandwidth talk. I guess that some places put caps on connections, and are moving backwards. It's not all companies tho. There is plenty of ISP's that are upping connections day by day.

I for example live in NYC, and have RCN as my ISP. In the last year I had a jump of 15+Mbits in bandwidth. At this time I can pull 26 Mbits down(20 advertised), and there are plans to go even higher Q1 2008. My company never had any caps, and my used bw is in the high TB's.

There also is other ISP's around here that advertises 25+Mbits down. Not to mention Fios which I heard can hit up to 50Mbits down. The future is here, that is if you don't live on a farm


I'm ready, so bring it on MS!

PS- This thread is the perfect example why technology is behind in the US. Everyone is scared of change, and until they start embracing it we will stay this way.