Crackdown has nothing to do with this, there's plenty of people still playing burned copies of it online with halo 3 beta. I think this whole drive performance thing is a much more realistic path to look at. I'm sure the xbox has some sort of diagnostic utility for repairs, and I would imagine ms could remotely activate it. People who are banned have all played with a backup of some sort, OR possibly had a somewhat failing dvd drive. Those who aren't banned may not be playing backups online OR they have used good DVD+R media with a great burner and their discs don't tip anything off. Really this is all just theory at this point though.
Since all the theories here have been proven wrong. Here's mine
1) Since day 1 the xbox 360 was able to do a 'full' self test.
2) Firmware hack was discovered, developed and published.
3) Microsoft takes notice of this.
4) Microsoft rolls out an update with a new self test for the system.
5) The new test is able to read the firmware on the drive.
6) Drives are being tested. Somehow this information finds it's way to microsoft.***
7) Microsoft rolls out an update including the the ability to flag a system as banned (could have been done in the previous update as well since consoles without the latest update appear to get the banned message as well)
![Cool 8)](https://forums.xboxscene.org/Smileys/xs/cool.gif)
For some reason (we can guess but never be sure) Microsoft bans in waves (with delay).
9) Some people are banned, some are not. Aand that might be for legal or marketing reasons, who knows? But it has nothing to do with your system.
...
My theory is not waterproof either. I have no idea when the data was collected and when it was send. Also i have no idea in which update what step was taken....
That's a *ton* of data for MS to log and keep track of, and it really doesn't explain why non-modders are being banned, and really doesn't deal with a lot of other unknowns. The majority of the bannings seem to have been done, who knows really, but it would seem those who are not currently banned and are still playing away, are going to stay that way for now.