While I don't agree with your theory. I do hope its true.
I will find out tomorrow and if my system can't connect then I'll try again on Friday (yes, I'm a beta tester, so tomorrow will be a valid day for me).
I've not been in the beta forums much since yesterday. But yesterday I only found one thread that started Monday night when all this started going down. So it was 24 hours old when I last saw it. There were only 7 replies to the thread. Out of the 7 replies there were 4 unique users. 2 of the users made it clear that they didn't have a mod chip installed. The other two just said they couldn't get on. 1 person mentioned mod chip detection and the other two were followup posts.
I just haven't seen a big outcry from the other beta testers on the official forums. And I'm sure that if there were 1000 legit beta testers that couldn't get on, you would have 990 complaints on the official forums.
However, like I said before. I will have to wait until I get home to check since the proxy server here blocks access to the xbox.com site.